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FormulaNerds’ 2024 F1 season predictions

After a dreadful performance in the FormulaNerds' 2023 F1 season predictions review, our team are back for more. Will they fare better than last time?

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Now that we’ve taken a look at how painfully wrong our 2023 F1 season predictions were, it’s time to put pen to paper on our expectations for the year ahead.

F1
The 20 drivers who finished the 2023 season will all start the season in 2024, which is the first time that has happened in F1. (Image Credit: @F1 on X) 

I know I upset a few of you this time 12 months ago when I rightly pointed out that Christmas Dinner is an evening meal, but I have since discovered that I am, in fact, not right all of the time.

Turns out, that I’m not very good at guessing what time happen in the coming F1 season. My 0.5/5 was the worst amongst my team – at least I’ve got an informed group behind me.

We’ll kick off the festivities with our reigning champion, James M, to see if he can do as the likes of Mika Hakkinen and Fernando Alonso have done in the past and go back-to-back. (I’m not suggesting this is comparable to winning two consecutive F1 drivers’ titles.)

James M

F1

At the front, Verstappen and Red Bull will continue to dominate F1, whilst Ferrari sneaks a little clear of Mercedes (at least in the first half of the season) as the now Silver-and-Black Arrows get to grips with their new concept.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Outside of Formula Verstappen… Lando Norris
  • Biggest surprise: Oscar Piastri will underwhelm
  • Hot take: The artists formerly known as AlphaTauri will finish above Alpine

Elsewhere, Piastri will fail to close the gap to Norris and talk of his future WDC potential will quieten down a touch. Alpine will also underwhelm and even fall behind a vastly improved showing from the *insert sponsor* Racing Bulls.

Samuel

F1

Max Verstappen and Red Bull will walk the title, albeit not quite as easily as in 2023. McLaren and Aston Martin will continue their assaults in the powers above, but the trailing pack will begin to close the gap.

Williams will continue to grow in strength (at least on one side of the garage) and take the fight to Alpine with the ‘other’ Red Bull team there or thereabouts.

Haas will make improvements to their race pace, but Sauber (for simplicity and sanity) will struggle.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Oscar Piastri
  • Biggest Surprise: Lando Norris will leave McLaren for Red Bull at the end of the season
  • Hot take: Only Mercedes and Alpine will keep the same driver line-up for the 2025 F1 season

Piastri will continue to develop into a future world champion, which will destabilise McLaren’s line-up. Norris will take the opportunity to jump ship and replace the retiring Sergio Perez.

Alex Albon will continue to impress, earning a seat with Ferrari. Carlos Sainz will return to McLaren and Logan Sargeant will retain the seat at Williams, where he’ll be partnered by one of three rookies for 2025 (not including Liam Lawson).

Abby

F1

The constructors’ championship will be a closer battle as Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren will be stronger and bring the fight to Red Bull, with Red Bull possibly finishing in fourth.

With Perez being the weakest driver on consistency out of these eight, Verstappen will take the drivers’ championship as the other teams will share points across drivers but Mercedes will take the constructors’ championship, which is the same as the biggest surprise – Red Bull not winning the both.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Mercedes
  • Driver of the Year: Lando Norris
  • Biggest surprise: Red Bull will win the drivers’ championship with Max Verstappen, but not the constructors’
  • Hot take: Four different constructors will win a race

Lando Norris will continue improving and showing what he’s made of, especially with McLaren having a strong development plan. He could even win his first race (or more) making him Driver of the Year.

Lena

F1

As can be deduced from my predictions, I believe that the F1 field will move closer together, just as it did in 2023. Nevertheless, Max Verstappen and Red Bull will dominate, even if there will be more than one race that Red Bull doesn’t win.

This will contribute to Sergio Perez being replaced by Daniel Ricciardo during the season. Liam Lawson will fill the seat at AlphaTauri for at least the rest of the year to prove his worth for 2025.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Lando Norris
  • Biggest surprise: We will have eight different teams on the podium throughout the season
  • Hot take: Sergio Perez will retire before the season ends, Daniel Ricciardo will replace him while Liam Lawson gets the second AlphaTauri seat

The Driver of the Year will be Lando Norris, finally finding consistency in the car and confidence in himself after the rollercoaster rides of recent seasons. He is unlikely to make many mistakes, which will help him finally claim his first win.

The podium situation will be exciting in 2024. We’ll see eight teams on the podium by the end of the season. Which of this year’s backmarker teams will make it to the top remains to be seen – I’m putting my money on the top eight in the 2023 F1 Constructors’ Championship, but I’m happy to be surprised by Haas and Sauber.

James P

F1

Max Verstappen will win the world championship in the closing races of the F1 season after a year-long battle with Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes. The Red Bull will hold enough of an advantage after the summer break to see off the fight, but we will have more juicy moments on track and two dramatic collisions.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Lando Norris
  • Biggest surprise: Nico Hulkenberg breaks his podium curse
  • Hot take: Sergio Perez is replaced mid-season by Daniel Ricciardo

Max Verstappen will be the major point scorer for Red Bull this season. However, the second seat will become a liability, giving away points to Mercedes. Red Bull will win the constructors’, but by no more than 5 points.

The top two drivers will take the majority of the spoils this year, but Lando Norris will take three victories this year. Norris will be ready and waiting for any slip-up by the title contenders and will swoop in to win. At least one victory will be on pace merit, beating Verstappen and Hamilton.

James F

F1

It will be near impossible for Verstappen and Red Bull to replicate their utterly dominant 2023 campaign, but I still think they will clinch both titles next year as well. The Dutchman is simply a cut above the rest and underrated in my opinion.

For me, witnessing true mastery behind the wheel has been just as exhilarating as any close championship battle. He will continue to show why he is the best and will be Driver of the Year.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Max Verstappen
  • Biggest surprise: Williams will be podium contenders
  • Hot take: Max Verstappen will continue to dominate

While many expect the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes to close the gap (less so McLaren), I still believe Verstappen will win at least half of the races on the calendar, with Perez a similarly distant second.

Williams, more specifically James Vowles, really impressed me in 2023, and though funding is limited I think they will climb up the Standings and score a few podiums over the season.

Ollie

F1

After the progress we saw in 2023 by McLaren, they will carry this through into the new season, and Norris will be able to push Hamilton and Verstappen to the end to see a three-driver battle for the title.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Mercedes
  • Driver of the Year: Lando Norris
  • Biggest surprise: Lando Norris will challenge Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen for the drivers’ championship in a three-way battle for the title
  • Hot take: Sergio Perez retires from F1 at the end of the season

There will be a slight drop off in Red Bull domination due to the development of other teams, and with Perez not performing as well as he should and Mercedes and McLaren taking wins, Red Bull won’t be able to take the constructors’, which will instead go to Mercedes, who have the most consistent pairing.

Perez will be replaced by Daniel Ricciardo. This will be down to a lack of performance compared to his teammate for the second year running. Depending on when Andretti joins the sport, Perez may make a comeback to race for the American team.

Caitlyn

The strong lineup McLaren has with Norris and Piastri proved to gel well together this season, standing on numerous podiums together. With a struggling Perez in the Red Bull, it‘ll be quite hard for the team to continue the dominance they had this year in the constructors’.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: McLaren
  • Driver of the Year: Alex Albon
  • Biggest surprise: Logan Sargeant will match Alex Albon
  • Hot take: Oscar Piastri will get a grand prix win before Lando Norris

Alex Albon shined in 2023 with some strong performances in the Williams. The work James Vowles has done in just one season has been incredible and heading into next year with a significantly higher budget than they are used to, I believe Albon will continue to turn in strong performances week in and out.

Sargeant struggled during his rookie year, finishing with only one point compared to Albon‘s 27. Next season, I believe Sargeant will become a lot more confident and comfortable and start matching Albon more consistently.

Sam J

Oscar Piastri will continue his development in 2024, showing the potential we all know he has. He will surprise many and outperform Lando Norris to make sure McLaren climb the constructors’ table in 2024.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Oscar Piastri
  • Biggest Surprise: Yuki Tsunoda will get a podium
  • Hot take: Mercedes won’t be back at their best

Yuki Tsunoda has shown his class in 2023 and will come on again in 2024. With AlphaTauri taking a new direction for the new season, if given a car capable of it the Japanese driver will take his first podium in 2024.

Darius

I think that Lando Norris will be Max Verstappen’s toughest challenge in 2024. I believe that the McLaren driver will not only win his first race in Formula 1 next season but, will secure multiple victories next year.

Norris finished 2023 with six second-place finishes. If the Woking team can improve on their car from last season, Norris will go on to have a fantastic campaign which in my opinion, will see him take home the award for driver of the year.

  • Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
  • Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
  • Driver of the Year: Lando Norris
  • Biggest Surprise: Alex Albon will secure a podium finish for Williams in 2024
  • Hot take: Alpine will finish 7th or lower in the Constructors’ Championship next season

Albon surprised us all in 2023 with how good he was in the Williams. If Williams can provide Albon with a better car in 2024, I believe that Albon will continue to outperform expectations next season and in doing so, will secure himself a podium finish.

On Alpine, with multiple collisions between both of their drivers and a large number of DNFs, I  think that this form will carry forward into 2024 and I believe that the team will struggle to stay with some of the midfield pack ahead of them.

Featured Image Credit: @redbullracing on X

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